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Bounce Back Expected In Oilseeds As Global Markets Turn Positive 15-Jun-2012
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Domestic oilseeds ended the last day with heavy losses on the back of weak global cues and higher imports of oil into the local markets. The NCDEX RSO for the July contract ended the last day down by 1.63% or Rs 11.85 at Rs 715.65 after moving in the range of Rs 723.60-713.80 per 10 kg. Domestic oilseeds may recover on the back of bounce back in the Malaysian CPO futures and in the CBOT Soya oil in the after hours trading. Technically, the NCDEX RSO July delivery is likely to find resistance at Rs 720, Rs 724 and support is at Rs 712, Rs 709 per 10 kg.

The July e-CBOT Soya Oil currently quotes at 48.70, 0.70 cents per pound. The Malaysian CPO futures bounced back from the early losses in today's trading session on short covering activities. BMD CPO for the September delivery currently quotes higher at MYR 2875, up MYR 25 per tonne, after moving in the range of MYR 2890-2870 per tonne.

The CBOT July Soybeans finished the last session down 21 at 1387 ¼ cents per bushel, 28 1/2 off the high and 3 1/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 11 3/4 at 1308. This was 5 3/4 up from the low and 16 3/4 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished down 1.04 at 48.06 cents per pound, 1.23 off the high and 0.08 up from the low. A strong recovery in outside market forces plus a surge higher in corn and wheat helped to support the market bounce well off of the overnight lows. However, even very strong short-term demand news failed to support follow-through buying and the market experienced a steady flow of fund trader selling for much of the day. Higher than expected weekly export sales news and higher than expected monthly crush news failed to provide much support after a minor bounce. The NOPA crush for May came in at 138.3 million bushels which is up about 3 million from trade expectations. In addition, weekly export sales came in at 425,100 tonnes for the current marketing year and 580,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 1.005 million tonnes which was about twice expectations. Cumulative old crop sales stand at 101.3% of the USDA forecast for the marketing year versus a 5 year average of 98.9% for this time of the year. Meal sales came in at 116,800 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 24,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 141,300. Sales of 83,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales came in at 6,800 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 500 for the next marketing year for a total of 7,300. Continued talk of fund trader liquidation of July bean/July corn spreads added to the bearish tone on Thursday.

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